FiveThirtyEight 2018 Election Forecast Review - Free Download
538's final-day forecast probabilities for every 2018 US gubernatorial and congressional race, alongside the actual outcome. Useful for assessing model calibration — how well did predicted win probabilities match real results? Contains 1518 records. Download in Excel, CSV, PDF formats.
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💡 Key Takeaways
- Contains 1518 records / 11 fields
- Available for free download in Excel, CSV, and PDF formats
- Data sourced from: https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data
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| Cycle | Branch | Race | Forecastdate | Version | Democrat Win Probability | Republican Win Probability | Category | Democrat Won | Republican Won | Uncalled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Governor | AK-G1 | 11/6/18 | classic | 0.31095999 | 0.68904001 | Lean R | 1 | ||
| 2018 | Governor | AL-G1 | 11/6/18 | classic | 0.01692 | 0.98308003 | Safe R | 1 | ||
| 2018 | Governor | AR-G1 | 11/6/18 | classic | 0.00062000001 | 0.99937999 | Safe R | 1 | ||
| 2018 | Governor | AZ-G1 | 11/6/18 | classic | 0.0128 | 0.98720002 | Safe R | 1 | ||
| 2018 | Governor | CA-G1 | 11/6/18 | classic | 0.98794001 | 0.01206 | Solid D | 1 | ||
| 2018 | Governor | CO-G1 | 11/6/18 | classic | 0.9497 | 0.050299998 | Likely D | 1 | ||
| 2018 | Governor | CT-G1 | 11/6/18 | classic | 0.78996003 | 0.21004 | Likely D | 1 | ||
| 2018 | Governor | FL-G1 | 11/6/18 | classic | 0.77215999 | 0.22784001 | Likely D | 1 | ||
| 2018 | Governor | GA-G1 | 11/6/18 | classic | 0.3224 | 0.67760003 | Lean R | 1 | ||
| 2018 | Governor | HI-G1 | 11/6/18 | classic | 0.99853998 | 0.0014600001 | Solid D | 1 | ||
| 2018 | Governor | IA-G1 | 11/6/18 | classic | 0.57315999 | 0.42684001 | Tossup (Tilt D) | 1 | ||
| 2018 | Governor | ID-G1 | 11/6/18 | classic | 0.0174 | 0.98259997 | Safe R | 1 | ||
| 2018 | Governor | IL-G1 | 11/6/18 | classic | 0.83969998 | 0.1603 | Likely D | 1 | ||
| 2018 | Governor | KS-G1 | 11/6/18 | classic | 0.42814001 | 0.57151997 | Tossup (Tilt R) | 1 | ||
| 2018 | Governor | MA-G1 | 11/6/18 | classic | 0.00079999998 | 0.99919999 | Safe R | 1 | ||
| 2018 | Governor | MD-G1 | 11/6/18 | classic | 0.0073199999 | 0.99268001 | Safe R | 1 | ||
| 2018 | Governor | ME-G1 | 11/6/18 | classic | 0.94651997 | 0.053479999 | Likely D | 1 | ||
| 2018 | Governor | MI-G1 | 11/6/18 | classic | 0.93129998 | 0.068700001 | Likely D | 1 | ||
| 2018 | Governor | MN-G1 | 11/6/18 | classic | 0.93074 | 0.069260001 | Likely D | 1 | ||
| 2018 | Governor | NE-G1 | 11/6/18 | classic | 0.00942 | 0.99058002 | Safe R | 1 |